Primary dubbed most exciting in memory

By Matt Smith/msmith@trcle.com

Fred Thompson will be our next president. So began a Times-Review article in November. That prediction was based not on polls but Thompson’s topping the list of donations received from Johnson County voters according to Federal Election Commission data. Four months later, Thompson’s prospects of moving into the White House any time soon look slim at best.

In November, most voters probably assumed earlier primaries and caucuses would have already determined the clear-cut presidential candidate on both sides of the aisle by the time the March 4 Texas primary rolled around. Wrong again. Then again, probably few imagined Mike Huckabee would still be around at this point.

All of which, locals say, makes for the most exciting and interesting presidential race in recent memory and the first time Texas has played a significant role in the primary in decades.

“This is going to be an incredibly important election,” Johnson County Republican Chairman Dan Hunt said. “Probably the most important in 50 years.”

Johnson County Democratic Chairwoman Gayle Ledbetter said that Texas playing a major role in the nominating process for the first time in years just adds to the excitement.

Interest, and the fact that nominees on the Democratic and Republican side have yet to collect the delegates necessary to assure nomination, has led to high voter turnout throughout the state. Tuesday, the first day of early voting, saw 10,439 voters in Tarrant County compared with 804 on 2004’s first day of early voting, said Stephen Vickers, technical research coordinator with the Tarrant County Elections Office.

The Johnson County Elections Office reported 778 voters on Tuesday. Election Administrator Cheri Hawkins did not have 2004 numbers but called the turnout high.

“It’s been really good and really busy, but everything has gone smoothly so far,” Hawkins said.

Hawkins said party chairs tell her how many ballots to order based on previous election numbers.

“We requested about 10,000 but have ordered more,” Ledbetter said.

Hunt expressed similar concerns.

“On the Republican side, we ordered 30,000 and hope that will be enough,” Hunt said.

Early voting runs through Feb. 29. Additional ballots may be ordered up to Feb. 26, Hawkins said. After that, photocopied ballots would have to be used should they run out.

“Those would have to be hand counted,” Hawkins said. “Which we don’t want because it will delay getting the results.”

Republican candidates must collect 1,191 delegates to clinch the nomination. With 974 delegates so far, U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., no longer has to worry about Mike Huckabee, who has 245 delegates to date. The 140 available Texas delegates and the 88 from Ohio, which also votes March 4, could seal McCain’s nomination.

Neither U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., nor U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., will collect enough delegates to reach the 2025 total needed to clinch the Democratic nomination from the March 4 primaries. Given Obama’s streak of wins in the last 10 primaries, a loss or poor showing on March 4 could cause Clinton’s withdrawal.

“I’d hate to see a floor fight at the convention,” Ledbetter said. “I think it’s possible Hillary could still pull it out, but if she does poorly March 4 I think she might duck out. Either way, I’d like to see both on the ticket.”

Hunt said he hopes both Democratic candidates remain in the race through the convention.

“They have a more heated and contested race, which is a big part of what’s getting the voters out,” Hunt said. “On our side, we’ve known McCain would be the nominee for about a month. So we can concentrate on November while Obama and Clinton still have to fight it out.”

The election will be historic no matter what happens, Cleburne resident Sam Walls said.

“You’ve got the first female, first black man, oldest and, I think, first Baptist minister with a realistic shot,” Walls said. “So, we’re down to a lot of firsts.”

Heavier — so far — Democratic turnout could spill into the general election and ensure a Democratic president, Ledbetter predicted. Hunt and Walls disagree. All three agreed, however, that the process and the race should remain interesting.