By Matt Smith/Staff Writer
October 18, 2006 05:35 pm
—
With the Nov. 7 election less than three weeks away, Republican nominee for the District 17 congressional seat Van Taylor insists his campaign is healthy both financially and in spirit.
“The money keeps coming in, and we’re on track for a strong finish,” Taylor said. “Probably the strongest ever in this district.”
Elsewhere, the outlook of Taylor’s campaign looks less rosy. The camp of his opponent — U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards, D-Waco — claims a clear advantage in polls, funding and endorsements.
Polls favor Edwards
A poll of 400 likely voters conducted Oct. 9-10 by Washington, D.C., polling firm Benett, Petts and Blumenthal showed Edwards with a 21-point lead over Taylor. The poll showed Edwards at 54 percent, Taylor at 33 percent and 12 percent of responders undecided. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
A poll conducted by R.T. Strategies & Constituent Dynamics Oct. 8-10, showed Edwards enjoying a 17-point lead with a favorable rating of 55 percent to Taylor’s 38 percent.
The Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call, which had previously rated the race a toss up, upgraded their assessment from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic” in its Oct. 10 edition.
“If those 33 percent that are for Taylor had watched him on the Chris Matthews show, they would not support him,” said Gayle Ledbetter, Johnson County Democratic chair. “I’ve heard more Republicans who are thrilled with Chet because we’ve had more from him as a congressman than I’ve seen in the 30 years I’ve been in the city. Everyone should be glad to have Chet here.”
Taylor appeared on Matthews’ MSNBC TV show earlier in the campaign.
Johnson County Republican Party Chairman Dan Hunt disagreed with Ledbetter’s sentiments.
“As far as responding to those polls, I’d need to know more about them,” Hunt said. “I can’t speak for anything out of Johnson County, but I’ve been walking neighborhoods with the Taylor campaign and the response has been overwhelmingly positive for Van.”
Hunt ventured that Taylor will score even higher with Johnson County voters than Arlene Wohlgemuth — Edwards’ last opponent — did in the 2004 election.
The Taylor campaign dismissed the polls.
“Our research shows the race remains tight and winnable,” said Casey Phillips, Taylor’s campaign manager.
Taylor press secretary Mike Spellings said he sees no indication of Taylor falling behind in the race.
“Talking to our volunteers, who are knocking on doors, hitting the phone banks everyday, we don’t hear anything like that,” Spellings said. “People who put too much credit in these polls do a disservice to Central Texas voters. We just run our campaign, talk about values and what Mr. Taylor wants to do for the district.”
Spellings said the Edwards campaign paid for the Blumenthal poll, which he said contained loaded questions. Spellings also said the company refused to release a list of the questions asked.
Edwards’ campaign communications director, Jessica Schafer, confirmed that the poll was conducted at the behest of the Edwards’ campaign and said the poll did not contain loaded questions.
Spellings dismissed the accuracy of the R.T. Strategies poll, saying it initially misidentified Edwards as the Republican opponent and Taylor as the Democrat. Schafer agreed, saying Edwards’ campaign office received calls voicing similar complaints from voters. Schafer said the Edwards campaign did not sanction the R.T. Strategies poll and she did not know who requested it. The company could not be reached for comment.
Taylor said he puts more stock in voter response than poll results.
“This is a very Republican district,” Taylor said. “Everywhere we go we get a tremendous response and I’m excited about where our campaign is headed. I’m seeing people excited over my stance on lower taxes, less government and traditional family values.”
Loss of NRCC support?
The National Republican Congressional Committee may not be so excited about the District 17 race, however.
According to reports from the Edwards’ campaign, the NRCC canceled plans to buy more than $1.5 million in television ads on behalf of Taylor from five television stations in the Dallas-Fort Worth market. The move came after the NRCC conducted a poll in District 17.
Jonathan Collegio, NRCC press secretary, declined to confirm or deny the cancellations or dollar amounts.
“What the national party may or may not spend on Texas 17 is a matter of campaign strategy that we keep close to the vest,” Collegio said.
Collegio instead confirmed two polls covering District 17 were conducted on behalf of the NRCC on Aug. 2 and Oct. 12. He declined to release numbers from either.
“We’ve always been prepared to go it alone,” Taylor said when asked if the NRCC’s actions represent a blow to his campaign. “We’ve had a great amount of exterior support but, in the end, it’s the people of [District] 17 who are going to elect us, not some outside group.”
Edwards campaign representatives countered by saying low poll numbers and scant interest from NRCC, coupled with Edwards’ record and the overall negative tone of the campaign, indicate real trouble for Taylor’s campaign.
“For whatever reason, he just hasn’t gained any traction with voters,” Schafer said. “I think he gave up early on trying to convince people why he’d make a good congressman and spent his time and money attacking Chet. I think Chet’s record of independent leadership and the fact Taylor has no roots in this district also hurt him.”
County mayors to endorse Edwards
Possibly hurting Taylor’s chances further was Tuesday’s announcement that 11 Johnson County mayors intend to endorse Edwards this morning. They include Cleburne’s Ted Reynolds, Burleson’s Ken Shetter, Joshua’s Merle Breitenstein, Keene’s Gary Heinrich, Grandview’s Brandon Wright, Rio Vista’s Russell Green, Venus’ Carolyn Welcher, Alvarado’s Tom Durington, Godley’s David Wallis, Briaroaks’ James Dunn and Cross Timber’s Wava McCullough.
“Again, the people of the district, not some group, elect the candidate,” Taylor said. “And Johnson County is overwhelmingly Republican.”
Edwards’ cash advantage
Taylor likewise dismissed the cash advantage Edwards’ campaign enjoys over his. Records from Sept. 30 show the Taylor campaign with $102,495 in cash on hand versus $1.145 million for the Edwards’ campaign.
“We’re well-provisioned for the remainder of the campaign,” Taylor said. “Most of my money came from individual Texans. More of his comes from PACs and D.C. special-interest groups.”
Taylor said he received about $140,000 from outside, PAC and special-interest money. He said just under half of Edwards’ funds spring from those sources.
Schafer couldn’t confirm the 50-percent number and didn’t deny contributions from Washington. But she added that money from Lockheed Martin and other area businesses also play a big part.
Taylor finished by saying he feels positive as Nov. 7 approaches.
“There’s been an upswing in momentum,” Taylor said. “We’ve got a tremendous response from the debates. People say no one watches those things, but I’ve had people tell me they saw the debates and got to see the real differences between me and my opponent. I think my values match the values of people in the district.”
Edwards offered another take on the matter.
“I am thrilled at the bipartisan momentum of our campaign, which is reflected in our polls and the fact that the NRCC pulled out of the Taylor race after reviewing their own poll last week,” Edwards said.
Edwards said his campaign enjoys widespread support across the political spectrum.
Matt Smith can be reached at 817-645-2441,
ext. 2339, or msmith@trcle.com.
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